I. Spot data and trends monitored by Souzhu.com on the day
Today (2026year10month16day, Friday), monitoring by Souzhu.com shows that the national average ex-farm price for lean pigs 9.90 yuan / kilogram (+0.14%);10month16Daily review basis 9.89 yuan / kilograms.Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly, ending several consecutive days of gradual declines.
Notably,this morning, bidding at the group's pig farms rebounded by about 1—1.5 gross / kilograms, and quotes on the retail market also stopped falling and rebounded. After a sustained decline, low prices prompted farmers to hold back sales, and spot prices showed initial signs of stabilizing.
Today, the Sow Pig Network's hog price sentiment monitor showed a noticeably longer bullish bar and a significantly shorter bearish bar (1799 participants)—sentiment has clearly recovered.
Core spot market data
National average price of lean-type pigs sold 9.90 yuan / per kilogram (+0.14%).Three-way crossbred piglet price 183.33 yuan / per head, down 2.97 yuan / per head;Price of breeding sows 1533.33 yuan / head, unchanged—After rebounding for two consecutive days, prices stabilized today. On the feed side, the corn purchase price 2.34 yuan / kilograms (-0.05), soybean meal 3.46 yuan / kilograms (+0.01), feed 2.87 yuan / kilograms (-0.02).
Regional Trend Details
Today's real-time ranking of average prices by province shows a slight rebound across major production areas:
- Prices broadly rise in major production areas: Shandong 9.94(+0.19), Henan 9.89(+0.14), Hebei 9.89(+0.13), Shaanxi 9.65(+0.25), Shanxi 9.59(+0.17), Xinjiang 9.20(+0.20), Hubei 9.95(+0.08), Inner Mongolia 9.44(+0.08), Heilongjiang 9.63(+0.03), Jilin 9.51(+0.02), Liaoning 9.51(+0.03).
- Differentiation in the southern high-price region: Fujian 11.40(unchanged), Guangdong 11.20(unchanged); Zhejiang 10.40(-0.20), Jiangsu 10.30(-0.20), Anhui 10.10(-0.30).
- Yunnan 9.40(-0.20), Guizhou 9.50(-0.10) saw a slight decline.
Trend summary
Today, the spot market overall showed"a halt to the decline and a rebound, with groups leading the gains": National average price 9.90 yuan / yuan per kilogram, ending several consecutive days of small declines. Group bidding rebounded 1—1.5 gross / yuan per kilogram, with smallholders following with a slight rebound. The price of replacement gilts was 1533 yuan / The price per head has stabilized, indicating that the cull sow market has reached a balance after a continuous rebound.
II. Souzhu.com’s latest monitoring of hog supply and demand
(I) Supply-side conditions
Supply side"Short-term pressure remains, but low prices are triggering reluctance to sell". After a sustained gradual decline, prices in major producing regions generally fell into the 9.4—9.9 yuan range. Farmers’ losses deepened, and some began withholding sales to resist lower prices. Group auction prices rebounded by 1.5—1 per jin, indicating that large-scale pig farms also resist the current low prices. Prices for crossbred sows stabilized at 1533 yuan / The market supply and demand for culled sows are moving toward balance.
(II) Demand-side conditions
Demand remains in the post-holiday off-season, but there is no further deterioration in the short term.
(III) Supply-demand balance summary
Today's supply-demand pattern"Spot prices have initially stabilized, while futures are fluctuating at high levels": Spot-market reluctance to sell at low prices triggered a rebound, halting the decline—Surged in early trading 10615 before being driven down by short sellers to 10325, then recovered late in the session to 10490Bulls and bears are engaged in fierce contention at the current price level.
III. Daily Overview of Each Live Hog Futures Contract and Commentary on the Most Active Contract
(I) Key Daily Information for Each Contract (Trading date:2026 year 10 month 16 day; Exchange: Dalian Commodity Exchange)
Data source: Official closing data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange, Sina Finance (2026 year 10 month 16 day 15:00 Public data after the close). Hog futures rose slightly across the board today but fluctuated sharply during the session—The weighted hog index rose 0.21% to 10678 yuan / tons, trading volume for the day was 31.8 ten thousand lots, with a trading value of 538.49 billion yuan. Contracts showed mixed gains and losses:LH2707 increase 0.45%,LH2611 increase 0.25%,LH2701 Increase 0.24%,LH2705 No change,LH2703 Decrease 0.34%.Intraday fluctuations were generally 2%—3%, with intense battles between bulls and bears.
|
Contract |
Closing price (yuan/ton) |
Rise and fall |
Percentage change |
Today's open |
High |
Low |
Trading volume (lots) |
Open interest (lots) |
|
LH2611(original main force/approaching delivery) |
10055 |
+25 |
+0.25% |
10040 |
10200 |
10000 |
5.67 ten thousand |
7.59 ten thousand |
|
LH2701(new main force) |
10490 |
+25 |
+0.24% |
10450 |
10615 |
10325 |
17.40 ten thousand |
18.24 ten thousand |
|
LH2703 |
10240 |
-35 |
-0.34% |
10280 |
10365 |
10130 |
4.22 ten thousand |
13.14 ten thousand |
|
LH2705 |
11235 |
0 |
0.00% |
11215 |
11370 |
11060 |
1.63 ten thousand |
5.60 ten thousand |
|
LH2707 |
12155 |
+55 |
+0.45% |
12045 |
12285 |
11930 |
1.44 ten thousand |
3.65 ten thousand |
|
weighted live hogs |
10678 |
+22 |
+0.21% |
— |
10796 |
10678 |
31.80 ten thousand |
— |
(II) Core Focus——Short sellers’ comeback attack:LH2701 Holdings hit a new all-time high (today’s key focus)
The most important signal in today’s market:LH2701 Holdings rose from 17.43 ten thousand lots to 18.24 Ten thousand contracts, setting a new all-time high——Yesterday’s brief reduction in short positions was merely a pause for short sellers to take profits; today, they have returned in force.
#### I.LH2701 Overview of open interest changes
|
Date |
Closing price |
Open interest |
Daily change |
Percentage change |
|
10Month12Day |
10885 |
16.15 ten thousand |
+1.48 ten thousand |
-3.24% |
|
10month13day |
10605 |
17.12 ten thousand |
+0.97 ten thousand |
-3.33% |
|
10month14day |
10425 |
17.93 ten thousand |
+0.81 ten thousand |
-2.43% |
|
10month15day |
10455 |
17.43 ten thousand |
-0.50 ten thousand |
-1.04% |
|
10month16day |
**10490** |
**18.24 ten thousand** |
**+0.81 ten thousand** |
**+0.24%** |
Reduced positions yesterday 0.50 ten thousand lots, increased positions today by 0.81 ten thousand lots——Not only did they add back what they reduced yesterday, but they also reached a new high. The bears did not exit; after briefly taking profits at lower levels, they added short positions again at higher levels.
#### Two. Intraday trend analysis
Today LH2701 experienced sharp intraday fluctuations:
- Opened at 10450and surged in the morning session, boosted by a rebound in the spot market, to 10615(+165 points);
- Then bears launched a major sell-off, driving it all the way down to 10325(-290 points);
- recovered in the final trading session 10490 at the close.
from 10615 hit 10325, a decline of 290 points—what the user said"There was a rebound during the session, but it was still sold off afterward". The bears continued adding to their positions above 10600 and pushing prices down, precisely capping the rebound.
#### Three. Assessment of fund characteristics
Positions increased today 0.81 Ten thousand lots, but the price edged up 25 points, indicating:
1. Short sellers added to their short positions at high levels:10615 Short sellers nearby actively added positions to apply downward pressure;
2. Bulls bought at low levels:10325 Bulls were providing support nearby;
3. Bulls and bears are engaged in an intense battle at the current price level, but the bears remain in control—The rebound to 10600 was sold off again.
#### Four. Outlook
Overall assessment:The short squeeze is not over; it has merely shifted from a one-sided decline into a phase of high-level fluctuation..
1. Short positions hit a record high 18.24 ten thousand lots, and have not left the market;
2. Although spot prices have stopped falling and rebounded, the momentum is very weak (+0.14%), insufficient to support a futures reversal;
3. 10600—10700 has become strong resistance for the bears; any rebound to this level will be suppressed;
4. In the short term, it may 10300—10600 trade within a range as it consolidates and forms a bottom.
(three) New main contract (LH2701) Detailed explanation and comments
Today's new main contract LH2701 Closing price 10490 yuan / tons, compared with yesterday’s settlement price 10465 yuan / tons up 25 yuan / tons (+0.24%), the intraday high 10615 yuan / tons, minimum 10325 yuan / tonnes, with an intraday range of approximately 2.77%, trading volume 17.40 Ten thousand lots, open interest 18.24 Ten thousand lots, trading value 291.69 billion yuan.
#### Core contract performance
LH2701 Opened today at 10450 yuan / tons, after rising sharply in the early session to 10615 it was then driven down by short sellers to 10325, rallied back near the close 10490. Open interest set another all-time high 18.24 ten thousand lots. The current price for spot (9.90 yuan / kilograms = 9900 yuan / tons) premium of approximately 590 yuan / ton.
#### Analysis of Long and Short Forces and Open Interest
Today LH2701 Increase in holdings 0.81 ten thousand lots to 18.24 A record high of ten thousand lots, with trading volume rising to 17.40 ten thousand lots (yesterday 12.32 ten thousand lots).Increased trading volume and open interest, with sharp fluctuations——Bulls and bears are10400—10600 engaging in a fierce battle within the range. Bears are at10600 Continue to add to the long position above, 10300—10400 buying at lower levels.
#### Outlook and trading warning
In the short term, the market enters a phase of high-level fluctuation,10600—10700 is a strong resistance level for bears. In terms of trading,Rebound to 10600 Above this level, short positions may still be considered, but keep positions light (open interest is at a record high, so volatility may be high); below 10300 There are multiple buyers nearby. Use the actual transaction prices of small-scale farmers on Souzhu.com as the anchor.
(four) Supplementary analysis of the remaining contracts
#### 1. Original main contract (LH2611)
today LH2611 Contract closing price 10055 yuan / tons, up 0.25%, reaching an intraday high of 10200, minimum 10000. Open interest decreased 0.53 ten thousand lots to 7.59 ten thousand lots——Funds continue to exit as the delivery month approaches. The contract is trading at a premium of approximately 155 yuan / ton.
#### 2. Near-month and distant-month contracts (LH2703、LH2705、LH2707)
Today LH2703 Contract closing price 10240 yuan / tonnes, down 0.34%;LH2705 Contract closing price 11235 yuan / tons, unchanged;LH2707 contract closing price 12155 yuan / tons, up 0.45%The rebound in distant-month contracts was slightly stronger than in nearby-month contracts.
Four. Overall Market Summary and Risk Warning for Today
(One) Overall Market Summary
Today, the hog market overall showed"The pattern of spot prices stopping their decline and rebounding, futures fluctuating at high levels, and short sellers making a comeback": According to monitoring by Sogou Pig Network, the national average ex-farm price for lean hogs 9.90 yuan / per kilogram, stopped falling and rebounded slightly; group bidding rebounded 1—1.5 Gross; but on the futures side LH2701 Open interest hit a new all-time high 18.24 ten thousand contracts, surged intraday 10615 was hammered down by the bears to 10325.
The core signal from today’s market isthat the bears have not left: briefly reduced positions yesterday 0.50 ten thousand lots were just a pause for profit-taking; positions immediately increased today 0.81 The bears have launched a sharp reversal. 10600—10700 has become a strong resistance level for bears. Although spot prices have stopped falling and rebounded, the recovery is very weak and insufficient to support a futures reversal. The short squeeze is not over; it has merely shifted from a one-way decline into a high-level consolidation phase.
(II) Risk Warning
1. Short sellers are again putting pressure on risk:LH2701 Position holdings 18.24 ten thousand lots, a new all-time high; short sellers could step up pressure again at any time.
2. Risk of intense volatility at elevated levels: Today's amplitude 2.77%, bulls and bears are locked in a fierce battle, and intraday fluctuations may be significant.
3. The sustainability of the spot market rebound is in doubt: today's spot market has only rebounded 0.14%, momentum is very weak. If there is no further positive news over the weekend, the market may return to a slow decline next week.
4. Risks from policy and disease variables: Production capacity control policies from two ministries and commissions, and the development of autumn and winter diseases, could both trigger a market reversal.
5. Operational risk:10600 There is still room to try short positions above, but keep them light;10300 There is support nearby, so it is not advisable to chase short positions. Use the actual transaction prices of retail investors on 搜猪网 as the benchmark.
Data source: Soozhu.com live hog big data dashboard (national average price of lean hogs sold, real-time ranking of average prices by province, hog price sentiment, piglets/sows/Feed prices,2026-10-16); Soozhu.com live pig monitoring and early warning system (10month16Daily review,2026-10-16); Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog futures closing data (Sina Finance,2026-10-16 15:00).