The National Bureau of Statistics released data on hog production for the first three quarters. Hog slaughter growth slowed, while the pace of baseline capacity reduction accelerated, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
In the first three quarters, 53739 ten thousand hogs were slaughtered nationwide, an increase of 747 ten thousand year on year, or 1.4%, with the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points from the first half of the year. Pork output was 4508 ten thousand tonnes, an increase of 140 ten thousand tonnes year on year, or 3.2%.
At the end of the third quarter, the national hog inventory stood at 42533 ten thousand head, down 1147 ten thousand head year on year, or 2.6%. Of these, breeding sow inventory was 3602 ten thousand head, down 433 ten thousand head year on year, or 10.7%. The decline widened by 4.2 percentage points from the second quarter. The current inventory is 96.0% of the normal holding level of 3750 ten thousand head, near the lower bound of the reasonable range.
Brief analysis: The reduction in breeding sow numbers has clearly accelerated, pointing to a contraction in hog supply over the longer term. However, slaughter volumes are still growing year on year, continuing to support pork supply in the short term. The supply-and-demand trends are diverging.