On 10 month 19, the National Bureau of Statistics officially released data on national economic performance for the first three quarters of 2026, including key figures on pig inventory and slaughter closely watched by farmers. These provide an authoritative basis for assessing the current pig supply situation and subsequent trends in pig prices.
Data show that national hog slaughter in the first three quarters reached 53739 ten thousand head, up 1.4% year on year; at the end of the third quarter, the number of live hogs in stock was 42533 ten thousand head, down 2.6% year on year. Pork production also increased: pork output in the first three quarters rose 3.2% year on year, while total national output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry reached 7627 ten thousand metric tons, up 4.3% year on year.
The data structure makes it clear that total hog slaughter continued to grow in the first three quarters, while hog inventories at quarter-end declined year on year. Overall, the pattern was one of “supply release and gradual capacity reduction.” The sustained increase in slaughter during the first three quarters is also a core fundamental factor behind the ample supply in the recent hog market and the prolonged period of low hog prices.
Since the beginning of this year, the industry has remained in a deep-loss range for an extended period, with losses per head persisting. This has compelled farms to proactively adjust capacity. At the end of the third quarter, hog inventories declined year over year, indicating that base production capacity has entered a phase of involuntary contraction. However, the decline in inventories has been relatively modest, and capacity reduction has proceeded slowly. Hog capacity retained earlier is still being converted into market hogs for slaughter, so market supply pressure has yet to ease rapidly.
For the fourth-quarter outlook, market attention is focused on consumer demand and the pace of marketings. The traditional cured-meat consumption peak in the fourth quarter is expected to provide some support for hog prices, but the overall supply base remains relatively high, and conditions are not yet sufficient for a sharp rebound in hog prices. Farmers should take a rational view of the signals in this data release. The decline in hog inventories indicates that a production-capacity turning point is taking shape, but a market reversal will still take time. It is advisable to continue managing cash flow, exercise caution about holding hogs back for sale, avoid blindly buying the dip to replenish stock, and arrange marketing plans in an orderly manner based on one's own financial situation.
Overall, the hog industry is currently in a bottoming-out phase, with production capacity being gradually phased out. The coexistence of rising hog slaughter volumes and declining inventories means that short-term supply pressure remains. Over the medium to long term, as production capacity continues to be phased out, the supply-demand balance will gradually improve. Going forward, the market needs to continue monitoring changes in the breeding sow population, average hog slaughter weight, frozen product inventories, and the recovery in consumption.