Today, China’s domestic live hog market ended its sluggish spell. After briefly bottoming out at 9.79 yuan/kg, the price of standard pigs from three-way crossbreeds rose sharply amid changing market sentiment, shifts in the pace of sales, and marginal adjustments in demand. So, does this shift “from falling to rising” signal a new round of “sharp” increases in hog prices? Here is a detailed analysis:
According to the data, in 2026, during 9–10, the traditional “golden September and silver October” period, live hog prices trended downward last month. At the beginning of 9, the price of standard pigs briefly rose to 11.09 yuan/kg. During the month, the market failed to see the usual peak-season strength. In particular, although the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays were approaching, pressure from lagging production capacity on the farming side was substantial, and pre-holiday stockpiling feedback was weak. With supply exceeding demand, hog prices kept edging down, and by month-end, the price of standard pigs had bottomed out at 9.96 yuan/kg! Although hog prices rebounded slightly at the start of 10, with the price of standard pigs rising to 10.25 yuan/kg, marginal support from demand gradually weakened. At the same time, sales pressure on the farming side became concentrated. With supply and demand out of balance, hog prices slumped, and the price of standard pigs bottomed out at 9.79 yuan/kg. Compared with the peak at the beginning of the previous month, hog prices fell by a cumulative 11.72%!
However, according to the latest news, the market has stopped falling and rebounded over the past two days. As of 10 month 19, the national price of live pigs of the three-way crossbred type was 9.86 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan from the previous day. Pig prices suddenly “warmed up,” with most markets across the north and south trending stronger. The year-on-year decline narrowed to 12.12%, and support at the market bottom strengthened slightly!
By region, among the 28 regions under national key monitoring, only Jiangsu quoted weaker prices, while most markets across the north and south were stronger. Mainstream prices for standard pigs rose by 0.05~0.15 yuan/kg! Currently, in lower-priced regions, live pig prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning are 9.55~9.8 yuan/kg; in higher-priced regions, prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China are 10.3~10.4 yuan/kg. The market continues to fluctuate upward!
In terms of demand, in major consumer cities across China, last weekend, wholesale market prices for dressed carcasses fell by 0.1~0.15 yuan in Beijing, while market trading and sales were ordinary. In Shanghai, the average price of mainstream dressed carcasses was around 12.55 yuan per kilogram, and the pace of market trading was ordinary. At present, follow-through in pork demand in domestic cities is ordinary. This is mainly due to reduced people flows and weaker demand from catering and group dining, leaving little marginal support for consumption. However, with frequent cold-air activity and further cooling in northern China, temperatures are gradually turning cooler in many areas. This is providing some support for the purchase and sale of fresh pork. Purchase-and-sale activity for dressed carcasses has improved in some rural markets, and residents have become somewhat more inclined to build up their fat reserves for autumn.
In terms of supply, previously, group hog producers in many areas across northern and southern China had made some reductions in marketings. However, in the overnight market, institutions surveyed multiple areas across southwest, northwest, east-central, central, and northeast China, and found a slight increase in marketings by large-scale hog producers. However, judging by the ease of slaughterhouse procurement, slaughterhouses in northeast China were able to procure hogs smoothly, while some independent farms were holding back sales. Procurement was not difficult for slaughterhouses in east-central and central China; cautious sentiment on both supply and demand increased somewhat, and some large-scale hog producers tried raising prices for marketings. In southern markets, group hog producers in southwest and south China showed ordinary performance in completing marketings, and sentiment on supply and demand was somewhat cautious.
Currently, supply and demand for live pigs are relatively subdued. Pig prices may briefly fluctuate in a stalemate, but there may be little room for further declines, and market support at the bottom may gradually strengthen. After all, the latter part of 10 is approaching. Pressure on producers to market pigs may gradually ease, and the market may be inclined to hold prices firm. In some producing regions, there are still expectations that secondary fattening operations will restock with standard-weight pigs when prices are low. In addition, as temperatures continue to cool, seasonal demand for pork may gradually improve, and bullish market sentiment may gradually recover. In theory, pig prices may continue to rise slowly toward the end of 10, but the potential gains may be limited by supply pressure.