As 10 enters its latter part, the domestic hog market has recently remained lackluster. At the beginning of the month, supported by factors related to the National Day holiday, hog prices briefly rebounded from their bottom, with the average price of standard pigs climbing from 9.96 yuan/kg at the end of last month to 10.25 yuan/kg. Unfortunately, demand provided limited marginal support during the holiday, and the festive atmosphere gradually faded. Livestock producers had fallen short of meeting their planned marketings last month, and a clear increase in marketings occurred for a time! Amid changes in supply and demand, the hog market came under pressure and prices fell, continuing their inertia-driven decline. Earlier, the average price of standard pigs fell to 9.79 yuan/kg, setting a new low for the second half of the year. Losses for producers rose sharply. Last week, in the sample of hog companies surveyed by an organization, the average loss per head for companies that breed and raise their own pigs was nearly 220 yuan/head; losses at some smallholder pig farms may have reached 500 yuan. The market showed a peak-season slump!
However, in the past two days, the hog market has seen “new life in old wood,” with prices turning upward and moving into positive territory, while the price center has also gradually recovered. According to monitoring by an organization, as of 10/19, the nationalThree-way crossbreedThe average ex-farm price of lean-type live pigs is 9.86 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan from the previous day. Pig prices have stopped falling and are recovering; the average price of standard-weight pigs has fluctuated upward. Across northern and southern China, the scope of price increases has gradually expanded, and market sentiment has also gradually improved!
By region, among the 7 key monitored production areas in northern and southern China, a total of 28 provinces and cities are monitored. The national average ex-farm price of live pigs is close to the quoted prices in Shanxi and Heilongjiang at 9.8 yuan/kg. National live pig prices are 9~11.2 yuan/kg. Prices in Central China and South China were mostly flat, with scattered gains. Prices in East China, Southwest China, Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China were relatively strong!
In traditional production and sales markets, current mainstream live pig prices in the northern regions of Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China are 9.45~10.1 yuan/kg. Prices in Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin rose by more than 10 yuan/kg, while prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning are 9.55~9.8 yuan/kg. In southern markets, mainstream live pig prices in Southwest China, South China, East China, and Central China are 9.25~10.45 yuan/kg (excluding Guangdong and Fujian). Prices in the Sichuan-Chongqing market are 9.4~9.45 yuan, prices in Shandong and Anhui are 10~10.3 yuan, prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 10.3~10.45 yuan, prices in Henan are 10.15 yuan, and prices in Guangdong and Guangxi are 9.45~11.2 yuan/kg!
In view of this, on 10/19, hog prices stopped falling and began to recover, with the price center stabilizing and rising. Most markets in both the north and south turned positive, market sentiment improved somewhat, and the rationale supporting the rise in hog prices is analyzed below:
On the supply side, as is well known, hog marketings in 10 increased rather than decreased, and institutions surveyed large-scale hog producers and found that their marketing plans rose by 1.91% month over month! However, recently, after the average price of standard-weight hogs declined and producers increased concentrated marketings, market sentiment shifted somewhat. Resistance among independent producers and large-scale hog producers to selling hogs at low prices intensified. Large corporate hog producers reduced marketings, while independent farms followed suit and held back sales. Hog circulation slowed somewhat, easing supply pressure slightly, and the market saw moderate volume reductions alongside price increases!
On the demand side, after the National Day holiday, demand continued its usual decline, and marginal support from consumption was insufficient. Slaughterhouse operating rates hovered at low levels. In particular, high domestic frozen pork inventories and the gradual release of frozen pork further constrained the purchase and sale of chilled pork carcasses, putting pressure on hog prices! However, in recent days, as temperatures in northern and southern regions have gradually cooled, residents’ demand to build up autumn fat may slowly recover. Expectations for the consumption outlook have improved somewhat, and some downstream markets have seen a degree of secondary fattening purchases at lower prices, which has improved market confidence!
This analysis suggests that, amid short-term supply and demand changes, large corporate hog producers have tried to reduce marketings and push prices up, while marginal demand expectations have recovered and secondary fattening activity has increased in some markets; as a result, hog prices have stopped falling and rebounded. In theory, hog prices may see a compensatory increase in late 10. However, given the relatively high marketing plans of large corporate hog producers for the month and the likelihood that actual pork consumption will not increase significantly, the market may remain in a pattern of “expecting prices to rise, but not expecting them to rise sharply.” Changes in market marketing pace warrant close attention!
However, in the past two days, the hog market has seen “new life in old wood,” with prices turning upward and moving into positive territory, while the price center has also gradually recovered. According to monitoring by an organization, as of 10/19, the nationalThree-way crossbreedThe average ex-farm price of lean-type live pigs is 9.86 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan from the previous day. Pig prices have stopped falling and are recovering; the average price of standard-weight pigs has fluctuated upward. Across northern and southern China, the scope of price increases has gradually expanded, and market sentiment has also gradually improved!
By region, among the 7 key monitored production areas in northern and southern China, a total of 28 provinces and cities are monitored. The national average ex-farm price of live pigs is close to the quoted prices in Shanxi and Heilongjiang at 9.8 yuan/kg. National live pig prices are 9~11.2 yuan/kg. Prices in Central China and South China were mostly flat, with scattered gains. Prices in East China, Southwest China, Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China were relatively strong!
In traditional production and sales markets, current mainstream live pig prices in the northern regions of Northeast China, North China, and Northwest China are 9.45~10.1 yuan/kg. Prices in Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin rose by more than 10 yuan/kg, while prices in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning are 9.55~9.8 yuan/kg. In southern markets, mainstream live pig prices in Southwest China, South China, East China, and Central China are 9.25~10.45 yuan/kg (excluding Guangdong and Fujian). Prices in the Sichuan-Chongqing market are 9.4~9.45 yuan, prices in Shandong and Anhui are 10~10.3 yuan, prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 10.3~10.45 yuan, prices in Henan are 10.15 yuan, and prices in Guangdong and Guangxi are 9.45~11.2 yuan/kg!
In view of this, on 10/19, hog prices stopped falling and began to recover, with the price center stabilizing and rising. Most markets in both the north and south turned positive, market sentiment improved somewhat, and the rationale supporting the rise in hog prices is analyzed below:
On the supply side, as is well known, hog marketings in 10 increased rather than decreased, and institutions surveyed large-scale hog producers and found that their marketing plans rose by 1.91% month over month! However, recently, after the average price of standard-weight hogs declined and producers increased concentrated marketings, market sentiment shifted somewhat. Resistance among independent producers and large-scale hog producers to selling hogs at low prices intensified. Large corporate hog producers reduced marketings, while independent farms followed suit and held back sales. Hog circulation slowed somewhat, easing supply pressure slightly, and the market saw moderate volume reductions alongside price increases!
On the demand side, after the National Day holiday, demand continued its usual decline, and marginal support from consumption was insufficient. Slaughterhouse operating rates hovered at low levels. In particular, high domestic frozen pork inventories and the gradual release of frozen pork further constrained the purchase and sale of chilled pork carcasses, putting pressure on hog prices! However, in recent days, as temperatures in northern and southern regions have gradually cooled, residents’ demand to build up autumn fat may slowly recover. Expectations for the consumption outlook have improved somewhat, and some downstream markets have seen a degree of secondary fattening purchases at lower prices, which has improved market confidence!
This analysis suggests that, amid short-term supply and demand changes, large corporate hog producers have tried to reduce marketings and push prices up, while marginal demand expectations have recovered and secondary fattening activity has increased in some markets; as a result, hog prices have stopped falling and rebounded. In theory, hog prices may see a compensatory increase in late 10. However, given the relatively high marketing plans of large corporate hog producers for the month and the likelihood that actual pork consumption will not increase significantly, the market may remain in a pattern of “expecting prices to rise, but not expecting them to rise sharply.” Changes in market marketing pace warrant close attention!