Today, the domestic live hog market ended its sluggish trend,Three-way crossbreedAfter briefly bottoming out at 9.79 yuan/kg, prices for standard-weight pigs rose sharply amid a shift in market sentiment, changes in the pace of sales, and marginal adjustments in demand. Has the domestic hog market suddenly heated up, and does this price reversal from falling to rising herald a new round of sharp increases? A detailed analysis follows:
According to the data, from 2026 to 9-10, the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period, hog prices declined compared with the previous month. At the beginning of 9, the price of standard-weight hogs briefly rose to 11.09 yuan/kg. During the month, the market showed a pattern of a weak peak season. In particular, despite the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, market stockpiling ahead of the holidays received a poor response due to excessive lagged pressure from breeding capacity. With strong supply and weak demand, hog prices continued to edge down, and by the end of the month, the price of standard-weight hogs had hit a low of 9.96 yuan/kg. Although hog prices rebounded slightly at the beginning of 10, with the price of standard-weight hogs rising to 10.25 yuan/kg, marginal support from demand gradually weakened while concentrated pressure to market hogs persisted. Amid the supply-demand imbalance, hog prices fell sharply, and the price of standard-weight hogs hit a low of 9.79 yuan/kg. Compared with the peak at the beginning of the previous month, hog prices fell by 11.72% in total!
However, according to the latest news, the market has stopped falling and begun to recover over the past two days. As of 10/19, nationwideThree-way crossbred pigsLive pig price: 9.86 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan compared with the previous day. Pig prices have suddenly “heated up,” with most markets in both the north and south showing a firmer trend. The year-on-year decline narrowed to 12.12%, and support at the market bottom strengthened slightly!
By region, among the 28 key regions monitored nationwide, only Jiangsu saw weaker quotes. Prices were firmer across most northern and southern regions, with mainstream quotes for standard live pigs rising by 0.05~0.15 yuan/kg! Currently, in lower-priced regions, live pig quotes in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning are 9.55~9.8 yuan/kg; in higher-priced regions, quotes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China are 10.3~10.4 yuan/kg. The market continues to show a pattern of fluctuating gains!
In terms of demand, in major consumer cities in China last weekend, wholesale prices for carcasses in Beijing fell by 0.1~0.15 yuan. Trading activity in the market was average. In Shanghai, the average price for mainstream carcasses was around 12.55 yuan/kg, with market trading activity also average. At present, pork demand in Chinese cities is generally moderate, mainly due to reduced movement of people and cooling demand from restaurants and group dining, with little marginal support from consumption. However, as cold air becomes more frequent and temperatures in the north continue to fall, with temperatures gradually cooling in many areas, this is providing some support for the purchase and sale of fresh pork. In some rural markets, enthusiasm for carcass trading has improved, and residents are increasingly keen to stock up on fat for autumn.
On the supply side, previously, group-owned pig companies in many northern and southern regions showed some reduction in market hog sales. However, in the overnight market, institutional research across many regions in the southwest, northwest, east, central and northeast reported a slight increase in sales by large-scale pig companies! But in terms of how easily slaughterhouses can procure pigs, slaughterhouses in the northeast were able to bring pigs in smoothly, while some independent pig farms were holding back sales. In east and central China, slaughterhouses faced little difficulty procuring pigs, and cautious sentiment among both supply and demand increased somewhat; some large-scale pig companies tried raising prices for their market hog sales. In southern markets, including the southwest and south China, group-owned pig companies’ sales completion was average, and sentiment among both supply and demand was slightly cautious!
At present, hog supply and demand are relatively subdued. Hog prices may briefly fluctuate in a stalemate, but may have little room to fall further, with market support at the bottom potentially strengthening gradually. After all, 10 is about to enter its latter half. Pressure on farms to ship hogs may gradually ease, and the market may show a reluctance to accept lower prices. In some producing regions, there are still expectations that secondary-fattening operations will replenish their stocks of standard-weight hogs when prices are low. Moreover, as temperatures continue to cool, seasonal pork demand may gradually improve, and bullish market sentiment may gradually recover. In theory, hog prices may continue to recover slowly toward the end of 10, but the scope for an increase may be limited by supply pressure!
According to the data, from 2026 to 9-10, the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” period, hog prices declined compared with the previous month. At the beginning of 9, the price of standard-weight hogs briefly rose to 11.09 yuan/kg. During the month, the market showed a pattern of a weak peak season. In particular, despite the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, market stockpiling ahead of the holidays received a poor response due to excessive lagged pressure from breeding capacity. With strong supply and weak demand, hog prices continued to edge down, and by the end of the month, the price of standard-weight hogs had hit a low of 9.96 yuan/kg. Although hog prices rebounded slightly at the beginning of 10, with the price of standard-weight hogs rising to 10.25 yuan/kg, marginal support from demand gradually weakened while concentrated pressure to market hogs persisted. Amid the supply-demand imbalance, hog prices fell sharply, and the price of standard-weight hogs hit a low of 9.79 yuan/kg. Compared with the peak at the beginning of the previous month, hog prices fell by 11.72% in total!
However, according to the latest news, the market has stopped falling and begun to recover over the past two days. As of 10/19, nationwideThree-way crossbred pigsLive pig price: 9.86 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan compared with the previous day. Pig prices have suddenly “heated up,” with most markets in both the north and south showing a firmer trend. The year-on-year decline narrowed to 12.12%, and support at the market bottom strengthened slightly!
By region, among the 28 key regions monitored nationwide, only Jiangsu saw weaker quotes. Prices were firmer across most northern and southern regions, with mainstream quotes for standard live pigs rising by 0.05~0.15 yuan/kg! Currently, in lower-priced regions, live pig quotes in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning are 9.55~9.8 yuan/kg; in higher-priced regions, quotes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China are 10.3~10.4 yuan/kg. The market continues to show a pattern of fluctuating gains!
In terms of demand, in major consumer cities in China last weekend, wholesale prices for carcasses in Beijing fell by 0.1~0.15 yuan. Trading activity in the market was average. In Shanghai, the average price for mainstream carcasses was around 12.55 yuan/kg, with market trading activity also average. At present, pork demand in Chinese cities is generally moderate, mainly due to reduced movement of people and cooling demand from restaurants and group dining, with little marginal support from consumption. However, as cold air becomes more frequent and temperatures in the north continue to fall, with temperatures gradually cooling in many areas, this is providing some support for the purchase and sale of fresh pork. In some rural markets, enthusiasm for carcass trading has improved, and residents are increasingly keen to stock up on fat for autumn.
On the supply side, previously, group-owned pig companies in many northern and southern regions showed some reduction in market hog sales. However, in the overnight market, institutional research across many regions in the southwest, northwest, east, central and northeast reported a slight increase in sales by large-scale pig companies! But in terms of how easily slaughterhouses can procure pigs, slaughterhouses in the northeast were able to bring pigs in smoothly, while some independent pig farms were holding back sales. In east and central China, slaughterhouses faced little difficulty procuring pigs, and cautious sentiment among both supply and demand increased somewhat; some large-scale pig companies tried raising prices for their market hog sales. In southern markets, including the southwest and south China, group-owned pig companies’ sales completion was average, and sentiment among both supply and demand was slightly cautious!
At present, hog supply and demand are relatively subdued. Hog prices may briefly fluctuate in a stalemate, but may have little room to fall further, with market support at the bottom potentially strengthening gradually. After all, 10 is about to enter its latter half. Pressure on farms to ship hogs may gradually ease, and the market may show a reluctance to accept lower prices. In some producing regions, there are still expectations that secondary-fattening operations will replenish their stocks of standard-weight hogs when prices are low. Moreover, as temperatures continue to cool, seasonal pork demand may gradually improve, and bullish market sentiment may gradually recover. In theory, hog prices may continue to recover slowly toward the end of 10, but the scope for an increase may be limited by supply pressure!