Mid-2026 10, China’s domestic corn market entered the year’s most critical period of bullish-bearish competition: on one side, the supply surge caused by the new-crop corn coming to market in volume; on the other, the policy support signal sent by Sinograin’s launch of procurement. These two forces are jointly driving price trends.
After the National Day holiday, Sinograin launched new-crop rotation procurement in Northeast producing areas: Zhaodong Directly Affiliated Depot listed a purchase price of 2100 yuan / ton for Grade Three new-crop corn at 14 moisture; the Baoqing Branch of the Shuangyashan Directly Affiliated Depot began purchasing on 10 12 at 2010 yuan / ton. Meanwhile, Sinograin’s online auctions for procurement were rolled out across the board, showing a distinct “buy new, release old” pattern and strong purchasing intent.
This is rotation procurement and the opening of selected depots, not large-scale price support to push prices higher. Procurement is mainly of standard-grade dry grain, and the number of depots is limited. Its actual role is to provide a bottom anchor for the market: the posted price is 20-110 yuan / ton above Heilongjiang’s deep-processing purchase price, supporting the floor for grain sales at the farm level; at the same time, it is below traders’ and ports’ quoted prices, avoiding any active push to raise prices. Combined with Sinograin’s dual-driver mechanism of “policy-based reserves to safeguard the floor, rotation procurement to energize the market,” and cumulative procurement of more than 440 ten thousand tons since the new crop came to market, the policy direction of “actively entering the market, staying in the market, and working to stabilize the market” is clear, providing firm bottom support for prices.
This policy signal explains the recent market rebound: futures were the first to reflect policy expectations, port prices followed and stabilized, while spot prices in producing regions are still absorbing supply pressure. The interplay between policy support and supply pressure is what has formed the current pattern of “strong futures, weak spot prices, and regional divergence.”
As of 10 month 15, the national weekly average corn price was 2194 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton week over week, a decline of 1.83%. As new-crop corn comes onto the market in Northeast China, profit margins at deep-processing enterprises are under pressure, and their purchasing appetite is cautious; they continue to lower purchase prices. The new-crop marketing season in North China is in its middle to later stages. After arrivals at deep-processing enterprises peaked and then declined, purchase prices first rebounded slightly before coming under pressure and adjusting downward. Farmers’ grain-selling pace varies. After consecutive price cuts, reluctance to sell has increased somewhat, limiting the scope for a sharp decline. Corn prices in consumption regions are generally stable; some rose before falling, with small and limited fluctuations. After the holiday, new-crop corn is coming onto the market at a faster pace, and supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent.
Outlook: In the middle to latter part of 10 month, pressure from the concentrated marketing of new-crop corn will remain dominant, and the market may mainly move sideways at low levels, with rebounds likely to lack momentum. From 11 month onward, as the marketing peak passes and farmers become more reluctant to sell, combined with continued support from Sinograin and the start of downstream restocking, prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, then recover moderately. Overall, the market is expected to follow a pattern of “low-level fluctuations, stabilization and recovery.” The strength of any rebound will depend on Sinograin’s purchasing intensity and the pace of farmers’ grain sales.