The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Tokyo forecasts that Japan’s number of breeding sows will decline slightly in 2027, while total hog inventory stays nearly level with 2026, according to the most recent livestock report.
Pork production is also expected to be roughly on par with the previous year. FAS/Tokyo expects demand for pork to remain solid and believes many producers will maintain their current production scale.
Slaughter numbers in the first half of 2026 rose marginally from the same period in 2025, and pork production increased slightly. Pork carcass prices exceeded the five-year average for most of the period and at times surpassed 2025 levels, a year of exceptionally high prices. Domestic production supplies half of Japan’s pork consumption, and strong demand for domestic pork is supporting those prices.
Production costs are trending upward. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the production cost per head shipped in 2024 was ¥45,807 ($295.53), while the average sale price for a head at an average shipping weight of 116.4kg was ¥45,937 ($296.36), leaving the two nearly equal. Feed costs, which account for 66% of production costs, rose sharply from late 2025 into 2026 and surpassed 2024 levels. FAS/Tokyo said production costs from 2025 into 2026 may be equal to or even exceed live shipment prices.
MAFF statistics show the number of hog farms fell 8% from the previous survey on February 1, 2024, while the total number of hogs raised stayed nearly unchanged. Because of ageing producers and a lack of successors, a growing number of small farms are leaving the business while still profitable. About 70% of hogs in Japan are raised on operations with 3,000 or more head, and consolidation of mid-sized operations into large-scale operations is expected to continue.